Political experts have started the making predications on a few important events that will occur in the nation in the days to come such as the Lok Sabha Elections of 2019, its dates and whether Narendra Modi will be elected as the Prime Minister with a historic win of 282 seats out of 543.
Special note: According to the opinion of the political experts of the country and after analysis done by Gujarati News Service (GNS) survey conducted in july by over 1300 journalists of 428 districts of small and medium newspapers of 18 states and over 800 editors of newspapers of the country, the survey report has been published here.
There is a stark contrast between the India in 2014 and Modi’s India between 2014 and 2018. The agendas on which Narendra Modi won the elections in 2014 such as Employment, Ram Mandir, Section 370 for Kashmir, terrorism, naxalism, women empowerment, uniform civil code etc have come back haunting the Modi government. People have started asking as to how many promises have been fulfilled. Political pundits have raised a few important issues on which the Modi government is likely to suffer in the 2019 Elections such as demonetization, GST, unemployment, dissatisfaction of the local parties such as Shiv Sena, rise of regional power in Tamil Nadu, the Kashmir issue, Nitish Kumar’s changing stance etc. These issues can affect the number of seats for the BJP and they are likely to get 175-210 seats compared to 282 seats that they won last time. However, the Congress should not rejoice because their path to the winning the elections is a long one. Narendra Modi will have to go against his nature and create a sound political environment in order to regain his hold on Delhi. The question that still remains is how many parties will be willing to support the Modi government considering its governance, nature and political stance in the last four years. The promise made to the people in 2014 such as depositing 15 lakh in every bank account stand still. The common man expected to see a decrease in inflation and a decrease in the price of petrol and diesel. However, the real face started to come out when the government started functioning. The Modi who once talked of putting an end to the so called exchange of love letters between India and Pakistan exchanged sarees and shawls with the then PM of Pakistan Nawaz Sharif. The attacks haven’t stopped. Pathankot airbase attack and the never ending turmoil in Kashmir continue till date. The brave soldiers are losing their lives on a daily basis. There were rumors that terrorism in Kashmir will end after withdrawing support from the PDP government. The situation has not changed though.
The BJP government has fared well in the General Assembly Elections across the country after 2014. There are 20-21 states at present under the BJP. While the BJP marked its presence in the North East, it managed to attain a marginal victory in the home state of Prime Minister Modi with a mere 99 seats. It was from Gujarat that the Congress and Rahul Gandhi could once again have moral boost in the political arena. Visits to temples started in Gujarat and the same was replicated in Karnataka. The Congress party did make an attempt to appeal to the people using the Hindutva card but the BJP on the other hand introduced the Triple Talaq, Halala and various other steps that appealed to the Muslims in India. This has slowly created a soft whisper on the BJP’s concentration on the Muslim vote bank. And in order to clean this image, the issue of Ram Mandir has been raised time and again. It was because of the issue of Ram Mandir that Pravin Togadiya had to resign from the VHP and it is very much possible that the BJP might have to face stalwarts from the Congress and various other leaders such as Pravin Togadiya in the upcoming elections.
325 V/S 126 in the No Confidence Motion: Is this a sign of relief for Narendra Modi?
325 votes went to the BJP in the discussion on the No Confidence Motion compared to 126 against them in the discussion in Lok Sabha.
Generally in the Lok Sabha elections, there are no state-wise election issues. The current issues at national level influence the voters. Than to issue of terrorism in Kashmir and Article 370 issue can remain in hot discussion.
451 voters took part in the voting on that day. As decided strategically, the BJD of Orissa did a walkout during voting. Considering this, it is likely that the BJP and BJD will distribute seats in Orissa to form a coalition during the 2019 elections. Shiva Sena, which showed signs of annoyance to the BJP, did not participate in the voting and remained absent. They openly showed their displeasure with the BJP regime. If we analyse this, the BJP might lose a few seats in Maharashtra if the Shiva Sena decided to fight independently.
While Modi government relies on Rajnikanth in Tamil Nadu, the Congress sides with Kamal Hassan and DMK
Regional parties have always dominated the political area in South India. The BJP could get only a single seat in Tamil Nadu last time.
The issue of harassment by AAP to its Government may be the main issue. In Punjab Central Government can make issues of injustice and security.
This time, they decided to bring in the filmstar Rajnikanth in politics by making him form a new political party. His party had a symbol of Dhyanmudra of Yoga with a background of Lotus. This clearly indicates that Rajnikanth favors Modi indirectly and considering his popularity in South India, he is likely to get a good number of seats. He will support the Modi government after the results. Similarly, the film star Kamal Hassan formed a new political party by the name Makkal Needhi Maiam. Having openly opposed the Modi government, he is likely to support Congress after the results. The demise of Jayalalitha has completely disintegrated her party in Tamil Nadu. In such a scenario, Rajnikanth and Kamal Hassan can be a crucial factor for the BJP and the Congress respectively.
The BJP and Congress won’t be able to fight the upcoming elections independently
A number of political fronts were seen with the Congress during the Karnataka elections.
No big issue in front of BJP Government in Rajasthan but the issue of workinig State Government may come across. Gujarat again to campaing on issue to make Modi Prime Minister.
The SP, BSP, TDP, Trinamool Congress are likely to form a coalition with Congress party. However, Mayawati is chanting a different mantra. She has talked about forming a coalition in three states. However, a clear picture will only emerge after the results. On the other hand, the BJP will not fight all the seats independently this time. They might form coalitions with Akali Dal in Punjab and various regional fronts in other states this time. The BJP will not make its candidates contest the elections on the seats where the local front in siding with them. While the BJP and Congress were on a head to head battle in 2019, the opposition managed to gather strength after seeing the governance, administration and work efficiency of the Modi government and managed to win the seats in the by-elections at Gorakhpur, Fulpur and various other constituencies. This might give them a moral boost and they might come on a single platform like they did in the Karnataka elections. The point that lingers is, ‘How much will the BJP suffer in such a scenario?”
7 states might have a Congress supported coalition
The issue of betrayal in Andhra Pradesh may overcome…
The Congress party has been making consistent efforts to face the BJP in the upcoming elections by forming coalitions with various regional fronts. Sources say that as many as 7 states will have a Congress dominated coalition which includes UP, Bihar, Maharashtra, Karnatak, Jharkhand, Tamil Nadu and Jammu and Kashmir.
BJP might suffer in a lot of states
The issue of the killing of BJP workers in Kerala is sympathetic.
While the BJP and Congress have started to lay the blue print of the upcoming 2019 elections, the BJP is likely to suffer in states such as Jammu and Kashmir, Punjab, Delhi, Gujarat, Maharashtra, Karnataka, Bihar, West Bengal,Kerala, UP, Tamil Nadu, and Andhra Pradesh. Shiv Sena will be an obstacle in Maharashtra and Lalu Prasad and Nitish Kumar in Bihar. Punjab and Karnataka are governed by Congress at present and Mamata Bannerjee is anti-BJP, Chandrababu Naidu is dissatisfied and there are no positive signs in Tamil Nadu. The Communist party in Kerala won’t let the BJP win and Kejriwal is a hindrance in Delhi. Moreover, the PDP is annoyed with the BJP in Kashmir.
BJP’s strategy to concentrate on multiple issues than focussing on one
Regional partis will fight against each other in Tamil Nadu rather than BJP.
The BJP will concentrate on various small and large issues during the Lok Sabha Elections 2019 through various leaders contesting from across the country. However, the main agenda will be the Hinudtva card along with agendas like the Congress is a pro-Muslim, anti-national, and corrupted party. They will confuse the people. And their hidden agenda will be Ram Mandir- Hindutva, defaming the Congress and taking the fight to the opposition in case their leaders blunder.
Modi government might not get a support through its public welfare schemes
The BJP will try to bank on the various public welfare schemes to appeal to the voters.
In Karnataka, misuse of power-Raj Bhavan’s use becomes a matter. In Bengal, Mamta would be in front of BJP. That’s the biggest issue.
The Health card and Ayushman Bharat includes 10 crores families and their 50 crores family members. 12 crore people have benefited from the Mudra Yojana. Ujjwala Yojana, PM Awas Yojana , Jandhan Yojana, insurance to 5 crore laborers, 1.5 times more MSP for the farmers etc are a few schemes introduced by the Modi government and they will try to get votes of these beneficiaries. In addition to that, they also plan to appeal to the Dalits and the Tribals. And in order to ensure the same, the Modi government sent an approx. of 1000 officials in 21 thousand villages of 486 districts to check if the people have reaped the benefits of the 7 schemes introduced by the government. These 7 schemes include Ujjwala, Saubhagya, Jandhan, Jivan Jyoti Bima , Gram Swaraj Abhiyan etc. The government has asked the administration to be on toes and ensure that the Dalits and the Tribals benefit from these schemes.
Supporting parties of 2014 are in a state of displeasure. Is this the BJP and Modi’s greatest disadvantage?
All the parties that supported the BJP and Modi in 2014 are dissatisfied this time.
In Maharashtra, Shiv Sena is the only issue againts BJP. May not surprised if get gather at the time of elections. If Nitish is disapponted in Bihar, on special state status, Lalu can be on jail issue.
The first among them is the Shiv Sena of Maharasthra. The BJP did try to make efforts to convince them but Udhdhav Thackrey is willing to contest the Lok Sabha elections independently. TDP has become a separate front in Andhra. They even had their ministers in the Central Government. Chandrababu will fight the elections on a different front this time. It is assumed that the Akali Dal in Punjab is also unhappy with the BJP. Even Nitish Kumar is putting pressure and asking for the provision of special recognition to Bihar. Ram Vilas Paswan might stay with the LJP and support BJP. The BJP might use Ram Vilas Paswan to appeal to the Dalit voters. They might also use Ramdas Athawale in Mahrashtra for the same.
The law and order and the functioning of the Yogi government and the unity of opposition may be the biggest issues.
These two leaders are seen to side with the BJP because they like to exercise power. However, they might change their stance anytime. The Apna Dal will support the BJP. The BJP has its allies safe in the North East and they will support Rajnikanth in the South.
What will be the status of the political situation…
Uttar Pradesh: Talking about the largest state of the nation, UP BJP had historically won 71 of the 80 seats. Samajwadi party got 5 and Congress got 2 seats while Apna Dal party got 2 seats. But Mayawati did not get a single seat. There is a lot of suspicion in the BJP about the leadership of Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath after defeating in Gorakhpur and Phulpur by-election. After winning 71 seats in 2014 from 2009, BJP needs to satisfy with 40 seats would not surprise. No regional competitor party is Upset in UP
Uttakhand: BJP is likely to win Five Seats again in Uttrakhand.
West Bengal: Out of 42 seats in West Bengal, BJP won only 2 seats in 2014. Which one more seat than the election of 2009. After becoming the Prime Minister Modi and Amit Shah have increased their visits in West Bengal. Efforts are being made to eradicate the TMC stronghold in Bengal.TMC had 34 seats out of 42 seats. . This time, Mamata Banerjee’s mood and friendship with regional parties can get the same seats in TMC, but looking the preparations of BJP if Mamta needs to Satisfy with 30 seats from 34 seats may not surprise. BJP may get 5 to 7 seats.
Bihar: Talking about Bihar, the separation of Nitish Kumar from Lalu Prasad has helped the BJP win its share of power for the Lok Sabha. Bihari BabuNitish Kumar can bring something new through the demand of special state status to Bihar. They may also prepare separate group before the elections in the context of demanding that JDU should get more seats. In 2014, from 40 seats BJP gained 10 seats more than the previous and won 22 seats. This time the BJP is likely to get between 20 and 25 seats only if Nitish Kumar stays with them. If Nitish kumar gets seoerated BJP can get only 10 seats.
Gujarat: In Gujarat, in 2014, BJP won all the 26 seats, on the issue that a leader from Gujarat is going to become the Prime Minister, but this time if they make appeal on the same issue, than this time it may raise a question that how much voters gets convinced with it. BJP has lost 21 seats in the assembly elections. Congress is strong with 77 seats. . This includes NCP and Chotubhai Vasani seats. In view of this, BJP can get 20 seats out of 26 in Modi’s home state.
Punjab: Captain Amarinder Singh is a strong CM after defeating Shiromani Akali Dal-BJP, but it does not seem that they would allow BJP to set in Lok Sabha. Last tiem BJP got only 2 seats out of 13 seats. Congress got 3, AAP got 4 and Akali Dal got 4 seats. This time the congress Government is in rule and Kejriwal is also in mood to compete, than to BJP and other parties can get 6 to 8 seats. It does not seem that the competitor parties are disappointed.
Jammu Kashmir: Jammu and Kashmir has got a breakdown with the PDP. BJP got three seats out of six seats. This time there is a Governor rule. But Hindu voters are believed to be disappointed in Jammu and other Hindu-majority areas. BJP can get 2 out of 6 seats. Anyhow the situation is still the same in Kashmir.
Orissa: BJP has not shown anything in front of Biju Janta Dal. Last time it won just one seat out of 21. This time, efforts to keep Navin Patnayak succeeded as he has supported Modi’s One Nation One Election. Apart from this in the antitrust proposal, it also walked out as a part of BJD strategy. So that cross voting can be stopped. If BJP sits together they can get 5 out of 21 seats.
Himachal: There is a BJP government in Himachal Pradesh and can win all the four seats as did in the past.
Jharkhand: Despite the BJP government in Jharkhand, the system of law and order etc. If BJP gets 12 out of 14 seats than it’s more than enough.
Karnataka: Yeddyurappa is working on the hopes of getting 17 of the 28 seats in the Lok Sabha elections after becoming the Chief Minister of Karnataka for one day. In the JDS and Congress coalition government, tears in public are believed to be the main indicator of Chief Minister Kumarswamy. However, seeing JDS party having close relations with Congress, this time, BJP can get 10 out of 28 seats.
Madhya Pradesh: Shivraj Chauhan may not get power again if Assembly takes place in Madhya Pradesh, and BJP can get 15 seats instead of 27 out of 29 seats. Because for the Dalit votes Mayawati and Congress are co-operating in MP. Political evaluators believe that their coalition will affect 70 Assembly seats. In MP not Modi but Shvraj will rule. However, they can lead to an anti-incumbency. It would not surprise if BJP BJP loses MP.
Assam: The Government is in rule in Assam. Last time it got 7 seats out of 14 seats. This time may get 12 out of 14 seats.
Andhra Pradesh: In 2014, the BJP and TDP were in coalition in Andhra Pradesh. A total of 17 seats out of 25 seats were won. TDP members were there in Modi’s Government. Chandrababu was dissatisfied with Modi for not giving a special status as per promise to Andhra. It won’t surprise if BJP loses if congress and other parties get united. If people strongly oppose the opposition, then they may get 4 to 5 seats.
Chhattisgarh: Assembly elections is also going to be held in Chhattisgarh. People’s protests are being seen against Chief Minister Raman Singh. Looking to it, despite BJP’s Government may get 7 to 8 seats out of 11 seats.
The Union Territory: Andaman one, Chandigarh one, Dadra Nagar Haveli one, Lakshadweep one, Diu-Daman one, Puducherry one, BJP will win together six seats.
Delhi: In Delhi BJP won all the 7 seats. But as the Aam Aadmi Party Government is being harassed, the attitude of Delhi voters seems to support KejriWal in Assembly election and Modi in Lok sabha election, BJP may win 4 seats and AAP may take 3 seats.
Goa: In Goa BJP Government rules. BJP could win 2 seats.
Haryana: BJP won 7 seats out of 10 seats in Haryana. Opposition of some MPs against Chief Minister Khattar, on Ram-Rahim case, law and order etc. seeing to it BJP can get 7 to 8 seats out of 10seats.
Telangana: Even if YSR remains with BJP in Telangana, BJP can get only 1 to 2 seats out of 17 seats.
Tamilnadu: In Tamilmadu regional parties are strong. last time out of 39 seats BJP got only one seat. AIADMK party has broken down after Jayalalitha’s death. on the second hand Rajnikant has entered politics and made a new party and other film star kamal hassan has made a political party and announced to contest election. Rajnikant may get 15 out of 39 and kamal hassan may get 5 seats. . After the results, Rajinikanth can support Modi. While Kamal hassan is with Congress.
Rajasthan: This time it seems that assembly election is going to be held with Lok sabha election. BJP may get 18 to 20 seats out of 25 seats, even though the issues of Jat resevation, Alwar and other issues.
Maharastra: BJP won 23 seats out of 48 seats in Maharastra. Shiv sena plans something different for 2018. desoite of making attempt to convince Uddhav Thackeray may create separate group in Lok sabha may harm BJP. Shiv sena got 18 seats. Which may increase or not but would surely effect BJP.
Thus seeing the above political analysis, it seems BJP can get 175 seats out of 210 seats. Last time congress got 44 seats. Which may increase to 75 to 110 seats. However, how many supporting parties includinig SPA, BSPA, NCP may join with them remains a base.
NCP, Shiv Sena, BJD AIADMK, DMK, Communists, AAP, Lojapa, YSR, Akali Dal, RJD, Jharkhand Mukti Morcha, PDP, TMC etc. will take approximately 100 seats in this election. United Morcha can get between 193 to 200 seats.
In the North, two in Manipur, one in Meghalaya, one in Mizoram, two in Tripura, and two in Arunachal, BJP is likely to get all the seats in these states. Because BJP has power in most of this states. However, where there is a coalition, the BJP candidates can fall if the candidate is standing.